Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tenerife · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tenerife 1-1 Cadiz
Original prediction
Tenerife
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 50.1% | 44.8% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.5% | 28.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.34 | 21.4% | 26.4% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.26 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Tenerife
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Tenerife has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TenerifeLWDLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CadizLLLDD
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TenerifeCadiz
38.9Attack33.3
55.6Defence50.0
55.6Form16.7
51.0Power36.5
1.36xG0.89