Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Feyenoord · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (13%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Telstar 3-4 Feyenoord
Original prediction
Feyenoord
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.98 | 11.8% | 9.4% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.51 | 17.1% | 14.8% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.32 | 71.2% | 75.8% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–313%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Feyenoord
Probability
75.8%
Model confidence
75.8%
Feyenoord has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TelstarDLDLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FeyenoordWWWWL
GF 18 · GA 7 · avg 3.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
TelstarFeyenoord
29.2Attack91.7
41.7Defence79.2
25.0Form75.0
34.8Power77.9
0.64xG2.81