Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Telstar 0-4 Ajax
Original prediction
Ajax
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.05 | 15.6% | 29.3% | 13.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.06 | 18.6% | 24.3% | 5.7 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 65.8% | 46.4% | -19.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TelstarLWLWL
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AjaxWWDDW
GF 15 · GA 9 · avg 3.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
TelstarAjax
50.0Attack66.7
33.3Defence66.7
50.0Form66.7
47.8Power68.0
1.51xG1.74