Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Telstar are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Ajax are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Ajax hold a 40.8-point power-rating edge (47.8 v 88.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.7% in the Eredivisie, while Ajax holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
11.7%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00