Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Telavi are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDWDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Samtredia are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Telavi hold a 9.6-point power-rating edge (59.0 v 49.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.4% in the Erovnuli Liga 2, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80