Tekstilshchikvs
Arsenal Tula
COMPLETEDRussia · Cup · 9/8/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal Tula · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tekstilshchik 1-0 Arsenal Tula
Original prediction
Arsenal Tula
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.97 | 30.9% | 35.3% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.2% | 28.4% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 40.9% | 36.3% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal Tula
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Arsenal Tula has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60