Tegevajaro Miyazakivs
Omiya Ardija
COMPLETEDJapan · J2 League · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Omiya Ardija · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1-1 Omiya Ardija
Original prediction
Omiya Ardija
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 36.7% | 30.4% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.9% | 28.3% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 36.5% | 41.3% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.41 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Omiya Ardija
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Omiya Ardija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00