Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Team 0-0 Proxy, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Team 1-0 Proxy
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 34.6% | 37.2% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.77 | 32.6% | 31.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 32.8% | 31.3% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Projected Score
Team 0–0 Proxy
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.5%
Model confidence
37.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TeamWLL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/1.33
BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
ProxyWLLWW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
TeamProxy
33.3Attack22.2
55.6Defence55.6
33.3Form33.3
43.7Power38.7
1.07xG0.82