CupCup
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 14:55
Tatran Bohunice

Tatran Bohunice

Home
D
11
Full time
Uherský Brod

Uherský Brod

Away
D
GoalVio prediction
42% confidence
Tatran Bohunice(42%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Tatran Bohunice
42%
Draw
25%
Uherský Brod
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Tatran Bohunice
9
Uherský Brod
9
Defence
Tatran Bohunice
91
Uherský Brod
91
Momentum
Tatran Bohunice
33
Uherský Brod
33
Danger (xG)
Tatran Bohunice
0.00
Uherský Brod
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.49 xG for Tatran Bohunice and 1.02 xG for Uherský Brod. Uherský Brod's projected xG of 1.02 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Tatran Bohunice's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.51 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Tatran Bohunice's Defensive Stability (91) and Uherský Brod's (91) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Tatran Bohunice)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Uherský Brod)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Tatran Bohunice)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Uherský Brod)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Tatran BohuniceTatran Bohunice
D
Uherský BrodUherský Brod
D

Probability breakdown

42% confidence
Tatran Bohunice42%
Draw25%
Uherský Brod33%

Tatran Bohunice leads with 42% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Tatran Bohunice Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Tatran Bohunice host Uherský Brod in Cup. Tatran Bohunice have recorded WWWWLD in recent matches while Uherský Brod arrive with a run of WWWDDD.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.49 expected goals for Tatran Bohunice against 1.02 for Uherský Brod — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🔒 Defensive Stability Tatran Bohunice have kept 5 clean sheet(s) in 10 recent matches — a defensive record that gives them a meaningful edge in this fixture. Defensive solidity is one of the strongest predictors of match outcomes at this level.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Tatran Bohunice's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 57% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.

Why GoalVio backs this

Tatran Bohunice are generating a consistent xG advantage — 1.49 projected against 1.02 for Uherský Brod. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.48 is the clearest signal in the model that Tatran Bohunice are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Uherský Brod have won 3 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If Uherský Brod carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • Uherský Brod are in decent form with 3 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Tatran Bohunice

Tatran Bohunice

D
vs Dálnice Speřice
16 May 2026
00
Uherský Brod

Uherský Brod

D
vs Slavičín
15 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Tatran Bohunice vs Uherský Brod?

GoalVio's model predicts Tatran Bohunice to win with 42% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Tatran Bohunice vs Uherský Brod?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Tatran Bohunice vs Uherský Brod?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Tatran Bohunice vs Uherský Brod?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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