Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tatabánya · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tatabánya 2-2 Dorogi FC
Original prediction
Tatabánya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.4% | 42.1% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.8% | 26.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 29.8% | 31.3% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Tatabánya
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Tatabánya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TatabányaWWWWW
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Dorogi FCWWDWW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TatabányaDorogi FC
83.3Attack100.0
73.3Defence77.8
76.7Form81.5
76.6Power81.5
1.64xG1.29