Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Taroona are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 5.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while New Town are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 3.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and New Town hold an 8.0-point power-rating edge (63.0 v 71.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 6.9% in the Tasmania Southern Championship, while New Town holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 85% BTTS chance and 88% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
New Town
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
6.9%
New Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 29 · GA 7 · avg 5.80/1.40
GF 9 · GA 18 · avg 1.80/3.60