GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 1/16/2026, 11:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Tapatío are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Venados FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 53.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Tapatío

Probability

43.9%

Model confidence

43.9%

Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

TapatíoDWWLL

GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Venados FCWWLDL

GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
TapatíoVenados FC
50.0Attack66.7
58.3Defence33.3
58.3Form58.3
58.8Power53.2
1.83xG1.42
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