Tapatíovs
Venados FC
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 1/16/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWWLL), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Venados FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 53.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40