TapatíovsVenados FC

Tapatío are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Venados FC are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 53.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.