Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 40.4-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 59.3% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
59.3%
Model confidence
59.3%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60