Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLDLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 40.4-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 59.3% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
59.3%
Model confidence
59.3%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40