TapatíovsTepatitlán

Tapatío are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Tepatitlán are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 45.8-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 13.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.4% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.