Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Monarcas are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 10.6-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Monarcas
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40