TapatíovsLeones Negros UDG

Tapatío are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Leones Negros UDG are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 63.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.