TapatíovsLeones Negros UDG

Tapatío are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Leones Negros UDG are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and Leones Negros UDG hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 63.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.