Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Irapuato are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 7.8-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 51.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.5% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80