Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Dorados are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 9.2-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40