Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Dorados are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 9.2-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20