Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Dorados are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 3.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 9.2-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 68.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 5 · GA 17 · avg 1.00/3.40