GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 4/12/2025, 1:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Tapatío are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Correcaminos Uat are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Correcaminos Uat hold a 3.2-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 62.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Tapatío

Probability

39.9%

Model confidence

39.9%

Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

TapatíoWDWLL

GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Correcaminos UatWLDLW

GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TapatíoCorrecaminos Uat
50.0Attack91.7
58.3Defence33.3
58.3Form58.3
58.8Power62.0
1.80xG1.60
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