GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 10/5/2023, 11:05:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Tapatío are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Cimarrones are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 7.3-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 51.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.0% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Tapatío

Probability

41.0%

Model confidence

41.0%

Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

TapatíoDDDWL

GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CimarronesWLDLW

GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
TapatíoCimarrones
50.0Attack53.8
58.3Defence50.5
58.3Form46.2
58.8Power51.4
1.63xG1.34
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