Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (WDDDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Celaya are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40