Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Celaya are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60