Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 0W-3D-0L in their last 3 (DDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Celaya are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 8 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 52.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
35.8%
Model confidence
35.8%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00