Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Cancún are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 45.6-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.5% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
57.5%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20