Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapatío · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Tapatío are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Cancún are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 45.6-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 13.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.5% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Tapatío
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
57.5%
Tapatío has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20