TapatíovsAlebrijes de Oaxaca

Tapatío are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Tapatío hold a 12.1-point power-rating edge (58.8 v 46.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Tapatío holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.