Tapachulavs
Inter Playa del Carmen
COMPLETEDMexico · Primera Premier · 9/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapachula · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tapachula 2-0 Inter Playa del Carmen
Original prediction
Tapachula
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 41.5% | 38.4% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.8% | 27.3% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 31.7% | 34.3% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Tapachula
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Tapachula has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40