Tapachulavs
H2O Purepechas
COMPLETEDMexico · Primera Premier · 10/25/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
H2O Purepechas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tapachula 2-0 H2O Purepechas
Original prediction
H2O Purepechas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.9% | 32.4% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.6% | 28.5% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 31.5% | 39.1% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
H2O Purepechas
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
H2O Purepechas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20