Tapachulavs
Deportiva Venados
COMPLETEDMexico · Primera Premier · 10/20/2026, 2:05:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportiva Venados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tapachula 1-4 Deportiva Venados
Original prediction
Deportiva Venados
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.27 | 17.1% | 27.1% | 10.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 22.3% | 22.8% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 60.6% | 50.1% | -10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Deportiva Venados
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Deportiva Venados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40