Tapachulavs
Chapulineros
COMPLETEDMexico · Primera Premier · 10/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tapachula · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tapachula 2-3 Chapulineros
Original prediction
Tapachula
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 41.3% | 40.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.6% | 26.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 33.1% | 32.9% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Tapachula
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Tapachula has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00