Tanzaniavs
Guinea-Bissau
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/25/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guinea-Bissau · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tanzania 0-2 Guinea-Bissau
Original prediction
Guinea-Bissau
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 41.1% | 31.9% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 31.1% | 29.3% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.8% | 38.7% | 10.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Guinea-Bissau
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Guinea-Bissau has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00