Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Worthing · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tamworth 3-2 Worthing
Original prediction
Worthing
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.9% | 34.1% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.4% | 25.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 31.6% | 40.6% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Worthing
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Worthing has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TamworthLLDWD
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
WorthingWLWWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TamworthWorthing
55.6Attack55.6
0.0Defence55.6
11.1Form66.7
25.8Power62.6
1.42xG1.87