Tamworthvs
Wealdstone
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/19/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tamworth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tamworth 2-1 Wealdstone
Original prediction
Tamworth
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 48.2% | 42.3% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.1% | 22.1% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 27.7% | 35.6% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Tamworth
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Tamworth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40