Tamworthvs
Sutton Utd
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sutton Utd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tamworth 2-0 Sutton Utd
Original prediction
Sutton Utd
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 41.1% | 32.6% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.6% | 24.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 33.2% | 43.1% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Sutton Utd
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Sutton Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00