Tamworthvs
Boston United
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tamworth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tamworth 2-2 Boston United
Original prediction
Tamworth
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 44.2% | 38.7% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.7% | 24.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 30.1% | 36.4% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.56 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Tamworth
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Tamworth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 14 · avg 2.00/2.80
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20