Tampa Bay Sun Wvs
Lexington W
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Super League · 10/4/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington W · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tampa Bay Sun W 1-1 Lexington W
Original prediction
Lexington W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 21:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 33.7% | 33.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.6% | 27.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 39.7% | 39.4% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.38 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Lexington W
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Lexington W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60