Tampa Bay Sun Wvs
Carolina Ascent W
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Super League · 10/10/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carolina Ascent W · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tampa Bay Sun W 0-3 Carolina Ascent W
Original prediction
Carolina Ascent W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 21:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.23 | 27.7% | 27.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.7% | 26.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 44.6% | 46.1% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Carolina Ascent W
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Carolina Ascent W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00