Tampa Bay Rowdiesvs
Sporting JAX
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/24/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 4-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-0 Sporting JAX
Original prediction
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 17:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.11 | 82.7% | 78.5% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 8.41 | 10.9% | 12.9% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 14.25 | 6.4% | 8.6% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–015%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.4–012%
Predicted outcome
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Probability
78.5%
Model confidence
78.5%
Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60