Tampa Bay Rowdiesvs
Miami FC
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/3/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 3-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-2 Miami FC
Original prediction
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 66.9% | 62.2% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.61 | 19.9% | 21.7% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 6.95 | 13.2% | 16.1% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.3–010%
Predicted outcome
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Probability
62.2%
Model confidence
62.2%
Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00