GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 5/2/2026, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Mediumconfidence

Tampa Bay Rowdies are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Indy Eleven are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Tampa Bay Rowdies hold a 19.3-point power-rating edge (68.3 v 49.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.4% in the USL Championship, while Tampa Bay Rowdies holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Probability

62.5%

Model confidence

14.4%

Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Tampa Bay RowdiesWDDWW

GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Indy ElevenLDWDD

GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Tampa Bay RowdiesIndy Eleven
63.2Attack39.2
66.7Defence58.8
71.9Form43.1
68.3Power49.1
1.78xG0.67
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