Tampa Bay Rowdiesvs
Birmingham Legion
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/19/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tampa Bay Rowdies · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tampa Bay Rowdies 4-0 Birmingham Legion
Original prediction
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 68.5% | 70.4% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.00 | 18.2% | 17.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 6.87 | 13.3% | 11.9% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Probability
70.4%
Model confidence
70.4%
Tampa Bay Rowdies has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 12 · GA 14 · avg 2.40/2.80