CupCup
Friday, 24 July 2026Last updated 10:11
Tammeka

Tammeka

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LW
190
Full time
Zealot Sporting

Zealot Sporting

Away
Tamme Stadium
GoalVio prediction
43% confidence
Tammeka(43%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Tammeka
43%
Draw
21%
Zealot Sporting
36%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 3.68 xG for Tammeka and 0.57 xG for Zealot Sporting. Zealot Sporting's projected xG of 0.57 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 3-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Tammeka will score, but Zealot Sporting's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 4.25 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 3-0 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.

xG for (Tammeka)
1.35
avg per match
xG against (Tammeka)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
TammekaTammeka
LWWW

Probability breakdown

43% confidence
Tammeka43%
Draw21%
Zealot Sporting36%

Tammeka leads with 43% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Tammeka Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Tammeka host Zealot Sporting in Cup. Tammeka have recorded DWWWLW in recent matches while Zealot Sporting arrive with a run of LL. These sides have met 1 times recently, averaging 19.0 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 3.68 expected goals for Tammeka against 0.57 for Zealot Sporting — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🔒 Defensive Stability Tammeka have kept 5 clean sheet(s) in 10 recent matches — a defensive record that gives them a meaningful edge in this fixture. Defensive solidity is one of the strongest predictors of match outcomes at this level.
: 📈 Recent Form Tammeka arrive in better recent form — 4 wins from 10 matches (DWWWLW) against Zealot Sporting's 0. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.

Why GoalVio backs this

Tammeka are generating a dominant xG advantage — 3.68 projected against 0.57 for Zealot Sporting. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 3.10 is the clearest signal in the model that Tammeka are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Tammeka are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Tammeka

Tammeka

L
@ Vaprus
11 Jul 2026
15
W
vs Laagri
5 Jul 2026
21
W
vs Trans Narva
21 Jun 2026
10
W
vs Nõmme United
15 May 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Tammeka vs Zealot Sporting?

GoalVio's model predicts Tammeka to win with 43% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Tammeka vs Zealot Sporting?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Tammeka vs Zealot Sporting?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Tammeka vs Zealot Sporting?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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