Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paide · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tammeka 0-2 Paide
Original prediction
Paide
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.18 | 28.3% | 32.7% | 4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.5% | 24.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 46.1% | 42.4% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Paide
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Paide has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TammekaWLWWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PaideLWLWD
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
TammekaPaide
44.0Attack53.3
53.3Defence56.0
54.7Form56.0
52.5Power56.8
1.24xG1.38