Tallinna Kalev IIvs
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga B · 10/11/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-4 (7%), 2-4 (7%), 3-5 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tallinna Kalev II 1-1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Original prediction
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 37.7% | 30.6% | -7.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 20.9% | 20.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 41.4% | 49.4% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.32 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–47%
- 2.2–47%
- 3.3–56%
Predicted outcome
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 15 · avg 2.20/3.00
GF 26 · GA 8 · avg 5.20/1.60