Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bars · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Talant are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Bars are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Bars hold an 18.6-point power-rating edge (45.7 v 64.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.4% in the Premier League, while Bars holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bars
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
12.4%
Bars has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60