Tajikistanvs
Palestine
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/28/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tajikistan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tajikistan 2-4 Palestine
Original prediction
Tajikistan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 31.6% | 38.0% | 6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.8% | 29.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 38.6% | 32.6% | -5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Tajikistan
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Tajikistan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40